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- Jul 4, 2016
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- 112
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- 31
Everyone in this game has heard the player say "
Three questions: what is it, why does it happen and what to do with it
What is it:
There is a term - probability. It helps to assess how possible the outcome of an event from completely impossible to inevitable. Many events in the game are determined by probabilities. The simplest example is loot from mobs. Sometimes Forest Spirits drop Blurry Blueprint, sometimes not. If you have a lot of time and you beat a lot of Forest Spirits, you will notice that approximately every 20 Spirits drops one Blurry Blueprint. Sometimes it drop 2 in a row, sometimes even 50 kills in a row give nothing. But average you need 2000 spirits for one stack.
Imagine you had farm one stack of Blurry Blueprint for 1986 Spirits. It can be converted to probability of the drop one Blurry Blueprint
But the database data says that it should be
No. What you got is called a probability estimate. The more Blurry Blueprint you have gathered, the more Spirits you killed, the closer the estimate to
Why it happens:
Because this is how the server works, because these are the rules. Items drop out from mobs with a certain probability, just live with it.
What to do with it:
Knowledge itself is vain, but it will help assess what can and can’t happen. Knowing the probability of one event, it is possible to calculate the probability of several outcomes
If the Blurry Blueprint drop with a probability of
Extremely small. You can also find the probability of 5 Spirits not drop 5 Blurry Blueprints in a row. You just need to subtract the probability from one.
And what if you want to know if you have a chance to get at least one Blurry Blueprints from 5 Spirits in a row. It is possible to calculate. But it is easier to find the probability of a situation when you have not received a single Blurry Blueprint from five Spirits and take it reverse, this is also the answer. The chance of the Blurry Blueprints will not drop is
Because it is mathematics.
I killed (the name of the mob) already (number of attempts) times and still did not drop (the name of the object)" and get responded "you were just unlucky, I have it from (the number from one to ten) attempts"Three questions: what is it, why does it happen and what to do with it
What is it:
There is a term - probability. It helps to assess how possible the outcome of an event from completely impossible to inevitable. Many events in the game are determined by probabilities. The simplest example is loot from mobs. Sometimes Forest Spirits drop Blurry Blueprint, sometimes not. If you have a lot of time and you beat a lot of Forest Spirits, you will notice that approximately every 20 Spirits drops one Blurry Blueprint. Sometimes it drop 2 in a row, sometimes even 50 kills in a row give nothing. But average you need 2000 spirits for one stack.
Imagine you had farm one stack of Blurry Blueprint for 1986 Spirits. It can be converted to probability of the drop one Blurry Blueprint
99/1986 = ~0.0498 means around 4.98%But the database data says that it should be
5%, what's wrong? Developer cheat!No. What you got is called a probability estimate. The more Blurry Blueprint you have gathered, the more Spirits you killed, the closer the estimate to
5%. Probability is the ratio of the number of required result of events you need to the total number of events. The more events, the more accurate the probability.Why it happens:
Because this is how the server works, because these are the rules. Items drop out from mobs with a certain probability, just live with it.
What to do with it:
Knowledge itself is vain, but it will help assess what can and can’t happen. Knowing the probability of one event, it is possible to calculate the probability of several outcomes
If the Blurry Blueprint drop with a probability of
5%, then what is the probability to get 5 Blurry Blueprints from 5 Spirits in a row. It's just need to multiply the probabilities between each other, but first turn 5% into a number from 0 to 1, where 0 is 0% and 1 is 100%. A value of 5% means a probability of 0.05. The percent symbol is just a way to make writing easier. So the probability of 5 Spirits drop 5 Blurry Blueprints is 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.05 * 0.05 = 0.0000003125, that is, 0.00003125%Extremely small. You can also find the probability of 5 Spirits not drop 5 Blurry Blueprints in a row. You just need to subtract the probability from one.
1 - 0.0000003125 = 0.9999996875, that is, 99.99996875%. Extremely big.And what if you want to know if you have a chance to get at least one Blurry Blueprints from 5 Spirits in a row. It is possible to calculate. But it is easier to find the probability of a situation when you have not received a single Blurry Blueprint from five Spirits and take it reverse, this is also the answer. The chance of the Blurry Blueprints will not drop is
95% or 0.95. The chance of not having a single Blurry Blueprint from 5 Spirits is 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.95 = ~ 0.7737, that is about 77%, this means that the chance that you will have at least one Blurry Blueprint from 5 Spirits is 33%. With 10 Spirits 41%, with 20 Spirits 65%. Not 100% as many players used to count, but only 65%. Not "I will kill 20 mobs, and they will give me exactly 1 Blurry Blueprint" but only 65% chance.Because it is mathematics.
